Financial agricultural market France and Europe

INFORMATION OF THE DAY
Severe correction of the prices on the agricultural markets

The prices of the agricultural raw materials severely corrected yesterday, in Europe as in the United States, relegating to the second plan fundamental various products. Soya has dropped some for Monday seems to have been the engine of the correction of the prices yesterday on the various markets. The very recent prospect for good harvests of broad bean in South America, a forecast of surface sown in the United States of the raised USDA, some cancellations of American sales were the elements proposed to justify the fall yesterday. Moreover, the crossing downwards of technical points accelerated the fall. Colza/canola lost approximately 5%. In the topicality of colza, the relaxation of part of strategic stocks of oil of colza in China and an expected harvest with 2,14MT in Australia added pressure. Concerning wheat, a certain rise in temperature of the temperatures in the American plains and the snowfalls expected in China weighed on the prices of cereal, in the context of very strong fall of the context oilseeds. Yesterday, there was no handing-over in question of fundamental of the various products, but the hour was well with the correction of the prices.

French market
Agitation on the futures market disturbed the physics activity yesterday. Indeed, the prices on Euronext evolved so quickly that it was difficult for the intermediaries to suggest purchasing price putting and salesmen of agreement.

British market
The London place finished yesterday in clear fall on the whole of the expiries. The contracts May 11 and Nov.11 respectively enclosed with £209/T (- £4/T) and £177.50/T (- £4.50/T). However the LIFFE could have found support in the figures exports published yesterday by the Britanniques customs. Indeed, more wheat 266KT were exported in December carrying the office plurality since July 2010 with 1.89MT; that is to say well with-on this side objective of DEFRA (Ministry for British Agriculture) with 1.33MT for the whole of the countryside. In the remainder of the topicality, the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, suggested yesterday that interest rates could be re-examined upwards to counter inflation galopante very soon (4% in January). Also, after this declaration Sterling appreciated itself vis-a-vis the Euro (£1=1.1956€) and vis-a-vis the American dollar (£1=1.6146$).

Market Black Sea
In Ukraine, the market of the wheat miller continued to be appreciated (+7€/T) yesterday. The prices reached 182€/T EXW in the center of the country. The fodder cultures followed the same tendency, part of the request remaining dissatisfied and thus obliging the purchasers to offer a bonus (+5€/T). The oilseeds were also raises some, colza having treated with 450€/T EXW in the center and east of country. The sunflower dimensioned 430 - 464€/T EXW according to the areas. The prices of soya reached 380€/T CPT Black Sea.

The 10 richest countries

With a new rise of 10.3% in 2010, the Chinese GDP passed in front of that of Japan.


1 - The United States: 14,660.2 billion dollars

Economic recovery was reinforced in the United States in 2010. After its stagnation of 2008 and its fall of 2.6% in 2009, the GDP filled its losses of the recession.

2 - China: 5,878.6 billion dollars

The Chinese economy exceeded that of its neighbor in 2010 and became the second of the world, behind that the United States, a place which occupied the Japanese economy since 1968.

3 - Japan: 5,474.2 billion dollars

Heavily struck by the world economic recession in 2008 and 2009, the economy of Japan was raised in 2010, its growth reaching 3.9%, but that did not make it possible the archipelago to preserve its second position vis-a-vis China in fast rise.

4 - Germany: 3,305.8 billion dollars

Doubled by China in 2007, Germany, whose economy was touched hard by the crisis, rebounded of 3.6% in 2010 - a figure ever seen since the reunification of the country.

5 - France: 2,555.4 billion dollars

The French government engaged costs which its public deficit of 7.7% of the GDP costs to bring back or a little less in 2010, to 6% this year and 4.6% in 2012. It already started to prepare the spirits with a rigor increased with a new announced effort of reduction of the tax loopholes.

6 - The United Kingdom: 2,258.5 billion dollars

The British government announced the raising of a tax imposed on the banks to help to make up the public deficit. This tax must help the country to face its public deficit”, higher than 10% of the GDP.

7 - Italy: 2,036.5 billion dollars

Italy adopted last July a plan of austerity of 25 billion euros relating to the years 2011 and 2012 which should enable him to bring back its deficit to 2.7% in 2012 against a level of 5.3% in 2009. Its national debt borders 120% more of its GDP.

8 - Brazil: 2,023.5 billion dollars

The Brazilian government announced budgetary cuts of 30 billion dollars in order to slow down inflation in 2011, but they will touch neither the social programs nor the investments in the infrastructures. The goal in 2011 is to arrive to a rise of 5% of the GDP, after 7.5% in 2010.

9 - Canada: 1,563.6 billion dollars

The Canadian economy knew a growth weaker than envisaged with the third quarters, the progressing GDP only of 1% in annual rhythm, because in particular of the weakness of exports.

10 - Russia: 1,476.9 billion dollars

The figure for 2010 slightly better than is envisaged, Russian the Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, having indicated to in mid-January that the rise of the GDP had been established to 3.8%.

Rosstat specified to have revised its estimate for 2009, to less 7.8% against less 7.9% previously.

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The Hindu : News / International : China: drought will not impact global prices

The Hindu : News / International : China: drought will not impact global prices

China on Tuesday said a record drought across its major wheat-producing provinces would not impact global food prices, with the country expected to meet its demand from “abundant reserves.”

“China is self-reliant on food,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ma Zhaoxu told a regular press briefing. He was responding to a question on global concerns triggered last week after the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) warned that two-thirds of China's wheat crop could be at risk, if a spring drought followed the on-going four-month-long dry spell.

Mr. Ma said continued bumper harvests for the seventh year and “abundant reserves” would ensure that China met its demand. China is the world's largest consumer and producer of wheat.

Even if China turned to foreign markets to satisfy its demand, it would only import “a small amount” under its import quota, which would not impact international food prices, said the Foreign Ministry.

Mr. Ma said the government was “taking active measures” to minimise the impact of the drought, acknowledging that it was likely to have some impact on winter production.

As of Monday, the drought, the worst to hit China in 60 years, has affected 6.75 million hectares of wheat-growing farmland across eight provinces, leaving close to three million people without adequate drinking water, according to state media. The government last week announced a $1.96-billion relief effort and emergency measures to mitigate its impact and salvage this year's harvest.

China bounces Japan as second largest economy - Financials - Futures Magazine

China bounces Japan as second largest economy - Financials - Futures Magazine

Good day! Monday's session was a quiet one for the markets. Volume was light and the trading range was narrow with the indices posting very little change by the end of the day. There wasn't much for market participants to grab onto to get things moving this morning either. The only event stateside to catch headlines was U.S. President Obama's 3.73 trillion federal budget proposal for 2012. If passed, the budget would include a five-year freeze on discretionary spending and a two-year freeze on the salaries for those in the federal government. Congress will hold budget hearings throughout the remainder of the week.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (Figure 1)

The premarket action for the day was a bit more exciting. China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest economy with a value of $5.88 trillion in 2010 as compared to Japan's $5.47 trillion. China's trade surplus narrowed in January with imports up 51% for the month while exports rose 37.7%. Asian markets ended higher on the day.

Meanwhile, the index futures continued to steadily hit higher highs between Friday's mid-day peak and the 2:00 a.m. ET correction period on Monday morning. This series of slightly higher highs, however, slowed the overall momentum of the rally that began ahead of last Friday's opening bell. This created a "wedge" type of formation on the 15 minute time frame that typically breaks lower, although often not as sharply as when the momentum shift does not involve a wedge. A wedge formation in the markets is an ascending triangle with slightly higher highs and higher lows. It can lead to a reversal, but often merely leads to a longer and more gradual correction over time.
S&P 500 (Figure 2)


The Dow Jones Ind. Ave. futures are typical of a reversal following a wedge. Notice that on the 15 minute charts, the correction is still slower than the initial upside move last Friday. The S&P 500, however, is a more common outcome. Its reaction has led to a trading range that even involved a slightly higher high on Monday afternoon to create another reversal pattern off highs heading into afterhours trade.

Although the Nasdaq outperformed the other two major indices, it also gave in to a bearish bias in the afternoon. Slightly higher highs on slowing momentum on a 5 minute time frame shortly after noon created a 2T reversal that favored further downside. This downside did not gain a lot of momentum until afterhours, but followed through strongly into earlier lows and price congestion soon after the closing bell. This corrective bias on the 30-minutes charts will remain intact as we head into early Tuesday trade.
Nasdaq Composite (Figure 3)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) had a loss of 5.07 points, or 0.04%, and closed at 12,268.19 on Monday. Twelve of the Dow's thirty index components posted a gain for the day. The top performers were Exxon Mobil (XOM) (+2.52%), Chevron (CVX (+1.27%), Alcoa (AA) (+1.27%), and Pfizer (PFE) (+1.17%). The weakest performers was Wal-Mart (WMT) (-1.60%). JP Morgan downgraded Wal-Mart (WMT) from overweight to neutral, citing a "lack of near-term catalysts". Verizon (VZ) followed with a loss of 1.35% after failing a breakout attempt on the 8th.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 3.17 points or 0.24%, and closed at 1,332.32. The top percentage gainers in the S&P 500 were Tesoro Corp. (TSO) (+7.94%), Netflix (NFLX) (+7.13%), Marathon Oil (MRO) (+6.10%), and Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) (+5.90%). The weakest were Clorox (CLX) (-6.19%), Motorola Mobility (MMI) (-5.46%), and Macys (M) (-3.05%).
The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) ended the session higher by 7.74 points, or 0.28%, on Monday and it closed at 2,817.18. Netflix (NFLX) continued its strong weekly breakout by adding another 7.13% to lead the Nasdaq-100 higher after receiving several upgrades from investment firms. Other top performers were Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) (+5.11%), Citrix Systems (CTXS) (+4.24%), and Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) (+3.25%). The Nasdaq-100's top losers were Ctrip (CTRP) (-5.40%), News Corp. (NWSA) (-2.76%), Sears Holdings (SHLD) (-2.09%).
Although Monday's session was a slow one for economic data and focused on the government's budget plans, the data will pick up on Tuesday with the Commerce Department's release of January retail sales, as well as the Empire manufacturing data for February and December's business inventories. On Wednesday the latest housing data comes out with the weekly mortgage applications and housing start, as well as the FOMC minutes.
Unless otherwise stated, the index action described in this article relates to the E-mini futures contracts for the respective indices. Actual index action may differ slightly in terms of pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.
Toni Hansen is president and co-founder of the Bastiat Group Inc., DBA Trading From Main Street. Toni is one of the most respected technical analysts and traders in the industry. She has been trading and educating new traders, money managers, professional market analysts and traders throughout the boom and bust of the last decade. She has worked in conjunction with some of the world's top financial exchanges. Learn more about Toni Hansen and the educational services she provides through her website at http://www.tonihansen.com.