1- Market analyzes (oil, ethanol, oil)
The financial markets finished one week delicate on a rather positive note, thus limiting the weekly losses. These last were posted all the same above 2% whereas the disorders in Libya feed the rise of the courses of oil. Fears concerning a deceleration of the growth thus remain sharp and the reaction of the markets is considered reassuring after one period of “artificial” growth crossing by connecting 11 rises in 12 weeks.
Oil market: ARABIA WITH THE HELP OF THE EUROPEAN MARKETS
The state of crisis which persists in Libya makes extremely nervous the oil market. Parallels, a little early, with the crises of the oil crises, run in the press and inflate the oil prices. The most alarmist assumptions count on a doubling of the prices of oil during four next months, if the tensions do not calm down.
For the moment, according to the International Energy Agency, the production of the oil of Lybie would have dropped by 500,000 to 750,000 barrels, which accounts for 1% of the worldwide production. The production decreases are supposed touch directly the international markets whereas Mouammar Kadhafi holds for person in charge the foreign countries of the chaos which currently prevails in its country.
If the courses marked a certain reserve still Friday, it is that the operators of Europe count much on Saudi Arabia to compensate for the falls of supply Libyans. Currently producing 9 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia is able to relatively quickly increase its production of 1.5 million barrels per day. On the other hand to saturate its production capacities estimated at 12.5 million barrels, 3 months a minimum time will be necessary. If this situation were to really succeed, then the allowances for risk in the market will be strongly reinforced, because of absence of maneuver margin to the production.
Market of ethanol: RESSEREMENT OF THE SPREAD
Friday, the Brazilian markets recorded a fall of 2.3% whereas on Chicago, the prices marked a rise of 2.7%. The spread between the prices of ethanol on these two stock exchange places is thus tightening itself. The Brazilian ethanol is currently 50 hundreds/gallon with the top of FOB American of Tampa.
In this context, it is thus comprehensible to see Brazil buying anhydrous ethanol with its neighbor to answer his request even if due to different specifications, this product must be reprocessed once on the spot. The purchasing possibility lies in the evolution which this spread will take. Let us recall that this one is strongly being reduced. It passed from 150$/m3 in December to 15$ currently.
Whereas the debate “fuel vs food” with US was reopened by Bill Clinton this Friday, the USDA provided that 5 million bushels of corn will be used with the production as ethanol. The demand for raw material exerted by this activity will have as a consequence an increase of 3.5% of the food prices, estimated Mr. Clinton, that is to say twice the rate of inflation envisaged.
Market of oils: DYNAMISM OF SOYA
Vegetable oils knew a favorable end of the week, helped well by the support given by complex soya. It also should be stressed that the context was carrying insofar as the flight of the courses of oil had not been followed at all by a rise of oils… A correction should take place since the courses of corn and soya remain currently underestimated compared to oil. Moreover, report USDA doped the courses in the end of the week by announcing a Net fold of soya oil stocks for the year 2011-2012. Retreat of almost 500 Mlivres of the latter, to 2.073 billion books, translated a renewed interest to come from the operators of the sector biodiesel.
In Malaysia, in spite of a retreat on brought closer, the situation improved on medium term whereas the purchasers returned to position. The purging of the beginning of the week allowed a beginning of rationing. However, the rebound should be limited by exports in Net retreat (- 8.2%) in February.
In Europe, the light fold da the single currency vis-a-vis the dollar made it possible the oil of colza to gain in competitiveness on the international scene.
2- Analyses of the margins of trituration
THE SOYA BEAN LEADS THE MARGINS
The flight of the courses of oil this week had, for first effect, to cause a compressing of the attraction for the agricultural raw materials because the return to the world growth appeared threatened. Indeed, the economies of the countries leaders are always very sensitive to the courses of oil and a too brutal increase in the latter can limit the request. In the second time, the operators calmed themselves in spite of the threats always topicality with the Middle-East. The sales pertaining to liquidation operated without understanding by the funds gave up their seat to a return of fundamental on the front of the scene. Thus, stocks of carryforward remain tended in soya and the purchasers returned.
The push of soya bean penalized the triturating machines which saw their margin blanching whereas the valorization of oil and the oil cake was maintained.
Lastly, in Europe, the progression of the oil of colza, supported well by the profits recorded by oil, just like the reinforcement of the dollar vis-a-vis the euro, brought an interesting support to the margin of the industrialists.
The financial markets finished one week delicate on a rather positive note, thus limiting the weekly losses. These last were posted all the same above 2% whereas the disorders in Libya feed the rise of the courses of oil. Fears concerning a deceleration of the growth thus remain sharp and the reaction of the markets is considered reassuring after one period of “artificial” growth crossing by connecting 11 rises in 12 weeks.
Oil market: ARABIA WITH THE HELP OF THE EUROPEAN MARKETS
The state of crisis which persists in Libya makes extremely nervous the oil market. Parallels, a little early, with the crises of the oil crises, run in the press and inflate the oil prices. The most alarmist assumptions count on a doubling of the prices of oil during four next months, if the tensions do not calm down.
For the moment, according to the International Energy Agency, the production of the oil of Lybie would have dropped by 500,000 to 750,000 barrels, which accounts for 1% of the worldwide production. The production decreases are supposed touch directly the international markets whereas Mouammar Kadhafi holds for person in charge the foreign countries of the chaos which currently prevails in its country.
If the courses marked a certain reserve still Friday, it is that the operators of Europe count much on Saudi Arabia to compensate for the falls of supply Libyans. Currently producing 9 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia is able to relatively quickly increase its production of 1.5 million barrels per day. On the other hand to saturate its production capacities estimated at 12.5 million barrels, 3 months a minimum time will be necessary. If this situation were to really succeed, then the allowances for risk in the market will be strongly reinforced, because of absence of maneuver margin to the production.
Market of ethanol: RESSEREMENT OF THE SPREAD
Friday, the Brazilian markets recorded a fall of 2.3% whereas on Chicago, the prices marked a rise of 2.7%. The spread between the prices of ethanol on these two stock exchange places is thus tightening itself. The Brazilian ethanol is currently 50 hundreds/gallon with the top of FOB American of Tampa.
In this context, it is thus comprehensible to see Brazil buying anhydrous ethanol with its neighbor to answer his request even if due to different specifications, this product must be reprocessed once on the spot. The purchasing possibility lies in the evolution which this spread will take. Let us recall that this one is strongly being reduced. It passed from 150$/m3 in December to 15$ currently.
Whereas the debate “fuel vs food” with US was reopened by Bill Clinton this Friday, the USDA provided that 5 million bushels of corn will be used with the production as ethanol. The demand for raw material exerted by this activity will have as a consequence an increase of 3.5% of the food prices, estimated Mr. Clinton, that is to say twice the rate of inflation envisaged.
Market of oils: DYNAMISM OF SOYA
Vegetable oils knew a favorable end of the week, helped well by the support given by complex soya. It also should be stressed that the context was carrying insofar as the flight of the courses of oil had not been followed at all by a rise of oils… A correction should take place since the courses of corn and soya remain currently underestimated compared to oil. Moreover, report USDA doped the courses in the end of the week by announcing a Net fold of soya oil stocks for the year 2011-2012. Retreat of almost 500 Mlivres of the latter, to 2.073 billion books, translated a renewed interest to come from the operators of the sector biodiesel.
In Malaysia, in spite of a retreat on brought closer, the situation improved on medium term whereas the purchasers returned to position. The purging of the beginning of the week allowed a beginning of rationing. However, the rebound should be limited by exports in Net retreat (- 8.2%) in February.
In Europe, the light fold da the single currency vis-a-vis the dollar made it possible the oil of colza to gain in competitiveness on the international scene.
2- Analyses of the margins of trituration
THE SOYA BEAN LEADS THE MARGINS
The flight of the courses of oil this week had, for first effect, to cause a compressing of the attraction for the agricultural raw materials because the return to the world growth appeared threatened. Indeed, the economies of the countries leaders are always very sensitive to the courses of oil and a too brutal increase in the latter can limit the request. In the second time, the operators calmed themselves in spite of the threats always topicality with the Middle-East. The sales pertaining to liquidation operated without understanding by the funds gave up their seat to a return of fundamental on the front of the scene. Thus, stocks of carryforward remain tended in soya and the purchasers returned.
The push of soya bean penalized the triturating machines which saw their margin blanching whereas the valorization of oil and the oil cake was maintained.
Lastly, in Europe, the progression of the oil of colza, supported well by the profits recorded by oil, just like the reinforcement of the dollar vis-a-vis the euro, brought an interesting support to the margin of the industrialists.
