Energie Market France

1- Market analyzes (oil, ethanol, oil)  
The degradation of the situation in Libya caused a flight of the courses of the crude and a retreat of the courses of the agricultural raw materials whereas doubts emergent with the Average East letting consider a deceleration of the world growth. The United States exhorted OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) to increase their production in order to stop any potential climbing of the prices of oil. 

Oil market: MORE HIGH LEVEL SINCE 2 YEARS AND HALF

Since last Friday, the crude exploded of 8.55% and encloses yesterday with 93,57$/baril on the expiry March 2011, now closed, and with 98.48 $/baril on the expiry April 2011, from now on the most brought closer expiry.
This higher since two years and half is of course to put opposite the political crisis in Libya where the production is in fall and blocked exports. Two Iranian warships are for the third time of continuation in one week sunken in Suez Canal, with displeasing Israelis. In this very tended context, the insurance emitted yesterday by the OPEC countries however limited the profits in its crude form and brent.
Brent takes only 4 hundreds in closing with 105,78$/baril but had recorded Monday a rise of more than 3$/baril.
Following China last week, South Korea day before yesterday, Japan has, in its turn, announced a rise of 3.6% of its imports of oil in the month of January 2011 per report January 2010. The request thus remains a carrying element on this market.
Market of ethanol: WEAK VARIATION
The ethanol markets underwent little variation yesterday on the stock exchange places. The prices remain unchanged in Brazil and record a fall of 2.8% with US to post a level of 2,438$/galon.
Two elements come to worry the operators on this market. The first which is not new relates to the deceleration of the investments in the United States in this sector because a fall of the financial support granted by the State is possible within the framework of the tightening of the American budget policy. The second relates to the competition which sugar exerts on ethanol in Brazil. The analysts re-examine the surfaces of sugar cane intended for the production of ethanol in fall of 0.3% for height of 55%. Sugar would bring a better margin of 10 cents/lb compared to ethanol. The potential for an increase in Brazilian exports is thus not very strong because the industrialists will prioriseront the interior market.

Market of oils: PURGE GENERALISEE

The riots in Libya crystallize the attention of the operators and blow the heat and the cold on the courses of the agricultural raw materials. Thus, courses of oil in New York one literally leaped during the meeting, gaining more 7$/baril! The production of the country is affected right now by the disorders and that creates a tension on the international scene. However, oil did not succeed in taking along in its wake the agricultural raw materials. These last lived one Tuesday evening both in Paris and in Chicago with an important purging observed on all the courses. It is clear that the extension risks of the Libyan conflict to the Middle-East was the element release with concerns concerning a possible deceleration of the world recovery.

In this context, the investment fund took a runout powder, operating sales panics, without understanding, which accelerated the phenomenon of the fold. However, the fundamental ones did not change an iota and remain tended. The courses of oils suffered, moving back clearly with the image of the losses recorded by complex soya in Chicago. The palm saved the face even if folds are expected today. Indeed, doubts emergent with respect to the request to come with an erosion from the purchasing interest which starts to appear.

With the image of the courses of cereals, the strong fold observed yesterday could involve a technical rebound today. Attention however because the operators remain very nervous.
2- Analyses of the margins of trituration                 
WAVE OF PANIC
The wave of panic which blew on the markets of the agricultural raw materials led to a drastic fall of the courses of oilseeds seeds. This fall was more violent besides on the courses of seeds than on those of oils what explains the very good behavior of the margins of trituration.
On the market of soya, the elements bears were combined in the plural: fears of the reduction in the demand to the Middle-East because as of political disturbances, those of fall of the imports in China because of a maintenance of the import taxes and finally the new revisions upwards of the Brazilian production constituted the principal elements of pressure on the courses. To date, this Brazilian production is thus estimated at 72 MT against even less than 70 MT a few weeks ago of that.
The sales pertaining to liquidation also related to the markets of cole-seed in Europe and in Canada. On these two markets, the recorded falls are posted respectively to 2.6% and 5%, calling into question the basic tendency bull this market. In the days which come, of the technical rebounds cannot be excluded on these markets.