1- Market analyzes (oil, ethanol, oil)
The rise continued yesterday on the financial markets which make more than ever proof of autism, remainder insensitive with the bad news and concentrating but on the good ones. Thus, the surprised fall of the industrial production in the USA and the increase surprised in the producer prices, passed to the oubliettes and the operators concentrated on the good health of banking just like on the will of the EDF to maintain the rates on low level in spite of the return of the growth.
Oil market: HISTORICALLY HIGH SPREAD
Whereas the macro-economic environment shows an optimism to any test, the courses of oil profited from supports of size yesterday even if US stocks weigh always as much and contain the profits on the other side of the Atlantic. Indeed, the situation in North Africa east far from being alleviated since demonstrations were reported in Lybie… Idem with the Middle-East where the demonstrators were virulent in Yemen, in Bahrain and even in Saudi Arabia. The geopolitical context is very tended and an escalation of violence is not to exclude more especially as the polemic swells between Israel and Iran. Very discussed Israeli Minister for the business foreign (far right) announced that 2 military vessels of the Iranian fleet tried, via Suez Canal, to join the Mediterranean and the broad one of Syria… not far from the Hebrew State. This declaration added oil on fire.
Vis-a-vis these tensions and with the threats which plane on the offer, brent it garnered new profits, posting even a level more considering since September 2008.
In same time, in New York, the confirmation of a new progression of stocks with Cushing leaded environment since the EPA also put forward a new reinforcement of the petrol and crude reserves. The rise thus remained limited what caused a reinforcement of the spread with brent.
Market of ethanol: FIRMNESS
Whereas the corn seed stopped the hemorrhage in Chicago, the courses of ethanol remained firm. Thus, after several sessions marked by catches of profits to the approach of the end of the contracts options over March 2011, the funds could return to the purchases what would provide foundations favourable with a rebound. Indeed, from a fundamental point of view, the offer is always under tension whereas the request does not weaken in spite of the elevated levels of the prices. The development of the needs for the production for ethanol should give a considerable support on the long run.
In Brazil, the courses of sugar were well begun again after several meetings leaded by technical corrections. The world demand is important and the Brazilian origin is appraisal. With final, sugar support the ethanol and this last progresses, approaching the 800$/m3.
Market of oils: IMPORTANT CATCHES OF PROFIT
Alros that the courses of the crude and of brent increased, the palm oil crumbled of 3.45% during the meeting of to post a fence with 3830 ringgit/T yesterday, victim of catches of profit to the image of the liquidations occurred on the agricultural raw materials in Chicago. The operators thus estimated that the markets were surcotés after the peak of February 10th.
However the factors bulls are still present and the fundamental ones remain solid. Indeed, the demand for palm oil remains strong on the emerging markets with as first purchaser China which imports 15% of the worldwide production. Moreover, from Malaysia, export on the first fortnight of February with recorded a rise of 7.3% per report has that of January.
The courses of oils of colza in Rotterdam and sunflower in Europe did not resist the fall of the agricultural matters yesterday while moving back respectively of 1% and 0.3%. Probably benefitting from the rise of the courses of oil, only the soya oil draws its pin from the play yesterday.
2- Analyses of the margins of trituration
FOLD GENERALIZES
A retreat of the margins of triturations for the various complexes was recorded yesterday. Indeed, the catches of profit occurred on the market of oils strongly marked the course of those. In Chicago, the generalized fall of the agricultural matters touvhé soya bean what, coupled to a fold of the prices of the oil cakes, was not compensated by the relative maintenance of oil. The good behavior of the pétroe could also facilitated a rebound of the oilseeds.
However the demand for oil remains strong and in progression as shows it exports in Malaysia. As lately as yesterday, Egypt launched a tender for 25000 tons of soya oil and 15000 tons of sunflower seed oil. The tendency on oils being bull, the margins of trituration should be rectified.
The rise continued yesterday on the financial markets which make more than ever proof of autism, remainder insensitive with the bad news and concentrating but on the good ones. Thus, the surprised fall of the industrial production in the USA and the increase surprised in the producer prices, passed to the oubliettes and the operators concentrated on the good health of banking just like on the will of the EDF to maintain the rates on low level in spite of the return of the growth.
Oil market: HISTORICALLY HIGH SPREAD
Whereas the macro-economic environment shows an optimism to any test, the courses of oil profited from supports of size yesterday even if US stocks weigh always as much and contain the profits on the other side of the Atlantic. Indeed, the situation in North Africa east far from being alleviated since demonstrations were reported in Lybie… Idem with the Middle-East where the demonstrators were virulent in Yemen, in Bahrain and even in Saudi Arabia. The geopolitical context is very tended and an escalation of violence is not to exclude more especially as the polemic swells between Israel and Iran. Very discussed Israeli Minister for the business foreign (far right) announced that 2 military vessels of the Iranian fleet tried, via Suez Canal, to join the Mediterranean and the broad one of Syria… not far from the Hebrew State. This declaration added oil on fire.
Vis-a-vis these tensions and with the threats which plane on the offer, brent it garnered new profits, posting even a level more considering since September 2008.
In same time, in New York, the confirmation of a new progression of stocks with Cushing leaded environment since the EPA also put forward a new reinforcement of the petrol and crude reserves. The rise thus remained limited what caused a reinforcement of the spread with brent.
Market of ethanol: FIRMNESS
Whereas the corn seed stopped the hemorrhage in Chicago, the courses of ethanol remained firm. Thus, after several sessions marked by catches of profits to the approach of the end of the contracts options over March 2011, the funds could return to the purchases what would provide foundations favourable with a rebound. Indeed, from a fundamental point of view, the offer is always under tension whereas the request does not weaken in spite of the elevated levels of the prices. The development of the needs for the production for ethanol should give a considerable support on the long run.
In Brazil, the courses of sugar were well begun again after several meetings leaded by technical corrections. The world demand is important and the Brazilian origin is appraisal. With final, sugar support the ethanol and this last progresses, approaching the 800$/m3.
Market of oils: IMPORTANT CATCHES OF PROFIT
Alros that the courses of the crude and of brent increased, the palm oil crumbled of 3.45% during the meeting of to post a fence with 3830 ringgit/T yesterday, victim of catches of profit to the image of the liquidations occurred on the agricultural raw materials in Chicago. The operators thus estimated that the markets were surcotés after the peak of February 10th.
However the factors bulls are still present and the fundamental ones remain solid. Indeed, the demand for palm oil remains strong on the emerging markets with as first purchaser China which imports 15% of the worldwide production. Moreover, from Malaysia, export on the first fortnight of February with recorded a rise of 7.3% per report has that of January.
The courses of oils of colza in Rotterdam and sunflower in Europe did not resist the fall of the agricultural matters yesterday while moving back respectively of 1% and 0.3%. Probably benefitting from the rise of the courses of oil, only the soya oil draws its pin from the play yesterday.
2- Analyses of the margins of trituration
FOLD GENERALIZES
A retreat of the margins of triturations for the various complexes was recorded yesterday. Indeed, the catches of profit occurred on the market of oils strongly marked the course of those. In Chicago, the generalized fall of the agricultural matters touvhé soya bean what, coupled to a fold of the prices of the oil cakes, was not compensated by the relative maintenance of oil. The good behavior of the pétroe could also facilitated a rebound of the oilseeds.
However the demand for oil remains strong and in progression as shows it exports in Malaysia. As lately as yesterday, Egypt launched a tender for 25000 tons of soya oil and 15000 tons of sunflower seed oil. The tendency on oils being bull, the margins of trituration should be rectified.
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